The recession is over. Find out when you will feel better.

8th August, 2009

Yep! It was released a few hours ago: the unemployment rate is only 9.4% and it was expected to be 9.6%. The free falling stopped so why aren’t you get a job yet? Or why don’t you have more money than a couple of months ago? Well, it takes some time… companies will not start hiring people like crazy overnight. They will be cautious since most of us learnt a lesson out of this mess. I think all of us will be more carefully from now on. This will determine an slow grow in the near future.

In past recessions the main economy drivers were housing, durables and exports. Internal demand accounted as much as 70% of the economy. Not this time, at least not in the near future. There have been structural changes with this crisis. People and companies will spend and hire much less than in the past. America looks like will become more frugal which I do not think is all a bad thing. Let’s keep ourselves focus and do not be over optimistic. All that I am saying is that it looks like we are not going anymore down. The way up will take a few years. That is my opinion.

Where are the opportunities in Real Estate in this new environment?

1. The “amazing deals” are almost gone so hurry up. Banks became smarter so they are not “writing off” bad loans and getting ride of the house for nothing anymore, now they learnt to “work things out”.

2. Rates are still low. Yes they are. Jimmy Carter was the Obama of the beginning of the 80’s. After his management rates went around 18% for a mortgage so please do not complaint when your loan officer offers you 6% 30 years fixed.

3. Now we have the Commercial Real Estate crisis which is a great opportunity for buyers like you. Because demand is low many retail businesses lost their properties. You can step in buying for cents out of a dollar… same like in residential. Buy mixed use properties, strip malls or whatever good piece you have in mind. Call me to analzyze it together.

Do not unbuckle! This road to recovery will be bumpy but we will be fine long term. Have a great weekend!

German

Condos en Florida: 10 consejos para inversionistas que van a comprar

German Llanos

12th June, 2009

Inversiones en Florida (en espanol)

Esta semana la he tenido muy ocupada. Muchos inversionistas siguen comprando fuerte en Florida. Despues de responder muchas de las mismas preguntas sobre inversiones de condo en Miami y el sur de la Florida quiero publicar algunos puntos que me parecen esenciales. Por favor ver el video de 8 minutos donde me expando.

1. Assesments (gastos de mantenimiento). Al momento de hacer la suma de gastos considerar que los gastos de mantenimiento son mas caros en la Florida debido a la cantidad de ammenities: doorman, valet parking, piscinas (albercas), internet, cable, fitness room, steam y sauna rooms, etc.
2. Impuestos patrimoniales (Real Estate Taxes). Cuando los edificios son mas nuevos se pagan mas. Muchos edificios fueron construidos alrededor de la burbuja inmobiliaria (2005, 2006)
3. Muchos edificios vienen con parking! Esto a diferencia de NY, Boston o Chicago donde no solo se compra el parking aparte sino que se paga assesment mensual y taxes anuales.
4. Como inversionista busca: Locacion y Vistas. Vale la pena pagar un poco mas en esto.
5. Si inviertes para largo plazo y vas a tener inquilinos, entonces que sea cerca a los centros de trabajo. Ejemplo: Brickell.
6. Busca estar cerca a la bahia, la playa, restaurantes, bares. Al momento de revender esto te dara mas ingresos.
7. Los inquilinos y futuros compradores de tu inversion van a buscar estos ammenities.
8. Algunos bancos no estan financiando edificios que tengan un porcentaje de unidades en foreclosure y/o short sale. Llamame si quieres discutir las diferencias. (847-962-0923)
9. Los precios de las rentas subiran de aca a 3 anos. La casi nula nueva construccion a partir del 2007 va a determinar que una vez que los inventarios se agoten haya un nuevo deficit de vivienda en 5 o 8 anos. Ahora casi ningun banco esta o va a financiar construcciones nuevas. Segundo tema: Inflacion con Obama poniendo trillones de papel moneda la economia, que no te extrane que lleguemos a una hiper inflacion como en Peru y Argentina en los 80’s (ojala me equivoque). Si tienes pagos fijos a 30 anos o propiedades pagadas vas a ver como sube la renta exponencialmente y te llenas los bolsillos pues tus pagos son fijos.
10. Finalmente, Warren Buffet invierte cuando el mercado asustado y los agentes economicos creen que es el fin del mundo… ese escenario se parece mucho a lo que estamos viviendo.

Si tienes mas preguntas llamame 847-962-0923
o escribeme german@24hourschicago.com
24 Hours Miami Real Estate LLC
www.germanllanos.com